A new CNN/ORC poll found that not only is Donald Trump clearly leading the Republican field, he is now competitive in the general election.
Trump has been rising in Republican primary polls since first announcing in June, recent surveys finding him in the mid-20s, giving him a commanding lead over his competition. But CNN's new poll shows that Trump's viability is no longer limited to the Republican nomination. "[F]or the first time," CNN announced Wednesday, "his gains among the Republican Party have boosted him enough to be competitive in the general election."
The poll finds Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump by just 6 points, a dramatic tightening since July. Trump is the one of three Republican candidates who have been matched against Clinton multiple times in CNN/ORC polling to significantly whittle the gap between himself and the Democratic frontrunner. He trailed Clinton by 16 points in a July poll, and narrowed that gap by boosting his standing among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (from 67% support in July to 79% now), men (from 46% in July to 53% now) and white voters (from 50% to 55%).
Though Clinton still maintains a lead when matched against the various Republican contenders, that lead is shrinking with every new report on the ever-deepening email scandal. CNN found that Clinton's lead on Trump and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has shrunk to 6%, while her leads over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina remain relatively steady at 9% and 10% respectively.
Though Clinton maintains a sizeable lead over her socialist Independent competitor Bernie Sanders, that lead has diminished considerably. The number who say they will vote for Clinton has dropped a stunning 9 points since July to 47%, falling below 50% for the first time. Sanders, meanwhile has risen by 10 points to 29%. Vice President Joe Biden now stands at 14%.
What appears to be doing the most damage to Clinton is a growing trust deficit among voters, particularly in regard to the "drip, drip, drip" of allegations about her potentially illegal use of a private email account. CNN found distrust in Hillary on the rise and her favorability falling off:
About 56% say so in the new poll, up from 51% in March. About 4-in-10 (39%) now say she did not do anything wrong by using personal email. Among Democrats, the share saying she did not do anything wrong has dipped from 71% in March to 63% now, and just 37% of independents say she did not do wrong by using the personal email system.
And positive impressions of Clinton continue to fade. Among all adults, the new poll finds 44% hold a favorable view of her, 53% an unfavorable one, her most negative favorability rating since March 2001. A majority of women voters have a positive take on Clinton, 52% view her favorably, and her support among women appears to be the foundation for her general election advantages.
So what's in Clinton's favor? CNN's internals show that she is still winning the female vote in all the key matchups:
Against Bush, Clinton leads 59% to 37% among women, while Bush holds an advantage among men, 51% Bush to 44% Clinton. Against Fiorina, the only woman among the major candidates for the Republican Party's presidential nominations, women break 60% for Clinton to 39% for Fiorina, while men are about evenly divided, 48% for Fiorina, 46% for Clinton. The largest gender gap -- 34 points -- comes in a match-up between Clinton and Trump. Women favor Clinton by 23 points, 60% to 37%, while men break in Trump's favor by 11 points, 53% to 42%.
Read CNN's full report here.
