During Piers Morgan Live’s coverage of the elections in Virginia and New Jersey Tuesday, Morgan invited on Newt Gingrich and Van Jones to comment on Clinton fundraiser Terry McAulliffe’s surprisingly narrow victory over the Tea Party favorite Ken Cuccinelli. The result is a classic comparison-contrast in clarity and confusion.

First, the clarity:

Morgan: Let's start with Virginia. Newt Gingrich. Pretty close over there. Likely still you would say that McAuliffe will edge it. But what does it say that it's been so close?

Gingrich: I think it's remarkable, and you had McAuliffe in some polls 15 points ahead, 10 days ago. He outspent Cuccinelli 4 to 1. I think the key difference is one word: Obamacare. Cuccinelli shifted over and began pounding on Obamacare and McAuliffe’s support of it. And that lead, at best current projections, went down from a 15-point lead to maybe a 1 or 2-point win. That’s got to be very sobering to every Democrat who’s up in 2014.

And here comes the confusion:

Morgan: Van, how significant has been the presence of the independent, Sarvis, who at the moment is getting nearly 7% of the vote here. I mean, if you took that out, could Cuccinelli have possibly won this?

Van Jones: Yeah, I think it's interesting and shows a problem here that the Republicans and Conservatives have to deal with. You have a very strong Libertarian movement. Chris Christie has alienated that movement, doesn't like that movement. It can go its own way, and it went its own way—and I think it’s probably going to wind up costing him. This thing is a lot closer than we thought it was going to be in Virginia. You got two factors. You got this Libertarian movement going its own way. You also just have the extreme right wing policies of Cuccinelli. Those two things together give us a win in that column. And I think it cements a real stronghold. ... The Democrats won the Lieutenant Governor's race there. It's already been called. We’re going to win the governorship, and I think the Republicans got to go back to their playbook and figure out how to do an autopsy on their autopsy [laughs] because, apparently, they didn't learn anything from 2012.

A few notes: Jones admits from the beginning that the only reason McAulliffe won was the presence of the Libertarian candidate, Robert Sarvis (who was reportedly backed by an Obama fundraiser). Jones then tries to portray this as a national problem because Chris Christie (who apparently Jones assumes will be the Republican candidate) does not particularly like the Libertarian movement. Jones wanders off point for a moment, admitting the race was a good deal closer than expected, before he blames Cuccinelli’s “extreme right wing policies” for the loss. Then, with CNN projecting a razor thin victory for the Democrat, Jones declares that the win “cements a real stronghold” for Democrats.

Winner: Gingrich by a landslide.