No Global Warming For 17 Years 11 Months

“The Great Pause is a growing embarrassment to those who had told us with ‘substantial confidence’ that the science was settled and the debate over.”

According to analyses of new satellite data, there has been no global warming for 17 years and 11 months.

Christopher Monckton, third Viscount Monckton of Brenchley and former policy adviser to U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, reports that despite the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration, the average global temperatures have been flat now for 215 months:

The Great Pause has now persisted for 17 years 11 months. Indeed, to three decimal places on a per-decade basis, there has been no global warming for 18 full years. Professor Ross McKitrick, however, has upped the ante with a new statistical paper to say there has been no global warming for 19 years.

Whichever value one adopts, it is becoming harder and harder to maintain that we face a “climate crisis” caused by our past and present sins of emission.

Taking the least-squares linear-regression trend on Remote Sensing Systems’ satellite-based monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature dataset, there has been no global warming – none at all – for at least 215 months.

This is the longest continuous period without any warming in the global instrumental temperature record since the satellites first watched in 1979. It has endured for half the satellite temperature record. Yet the Great Pause coincides with a continuing, rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

In his comparison of the data with scientific models, Monckton demonstrates that the actual rise in temperature since 1990 is “exactly half” of the estimate presented with “substantial confidence" by the IPCC:

That “substantial confidence” was substantial over-confidence. A quarter-century after 1990, the outturn to date – expressed as the least-squares linear-regression trend on the mean of the RSS and UAH monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies – is 0.34 Cº, equivalent to just 1.4 Cº/century, or exactly half of the central estimate in IPCC (1990) and well below even the least estimate (Fig. 2).

His conclusion: the so-called “Great Pause” is a “growing embarrassment” for the climate experts and they must now consider that they are "simply wrong" about the earth's temperature sensitivity:

The Great Pause is a growing embarrassment to those who had told us with “substantial confidence” that the science was settled and the debate over. Nature had other ideas. Though more than two dozen more or less implausible excuses for the Pause are appearing in nervous reviewed journals, the possibility that the Pause is occurring because the computer models are simply wrong about the sensitivity of temperature to manmade greenhouse gases can no longer be dismissed.

Above is the chart Monckton provides showing global temperatures with a flat-lined average.

H/T TheDC.

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