While Angela Merkel promises to “build a strong Europe” under the EU’s thumb in her next term as German chancellor, Germany’s top military strategists are busy planning for an entirely different scenario.
In a detailed report titled ‘Strategic Forecast 2040’ German military experts have drawn up a ‘concrete armaments plan’ in likelihood of an EU dismemberment. “Military planners consider the collapse of the EU conceivable,” wrote the German weekly Der Spiegel while breaking the story over the weekend. The German army, or Bundeswehr, came to this conclusion by analyzing current “social trends and international conflicts,” another media report explained.
“The Germans are making contingency plans for the collapse of Europe,” wrote the London-based leftist newspaper The Guardian. The strategic analysis was published by the German Minstry of Defence in February but was reportedly “kept under wraps” till it surfaced in the national media.
Reuters news agency reported the details of the German strategic report:
The German army contemplated fissures in the European Union and a rise in global conflicts as one of six scenarios that might play out by 2040, German magazine Der Spiegel wrote in this week’s edition.
The EU experienced a damaging debt crisis in 2010-12 and is now navigating Britain’s departure from 28-country club, the first country to choose to lose the bloc.
In their scenarios, the German army’s strategists envisaged a situation where more countries follow Britain’s footsteps and the world becomes “increasingly disorderly”.
“The EU enlargement has been largely abandoned, more states have left the bloc,” they wrote in the study cited by Der Spiegel.
“The increasingly disorderly, sometimes chaotic and conflictual world has dramatically changed the security policy environment for Germany and Europe.”
The magazine said the study would be followed by concrete armaments plans to be developed in the coming years.
The report also cited other possible scenarios in which eastern European states bring the EU’s expansionist plan to a halt and end up forming a rival “Eastern bloc.” The reversal of globalization and the return of nation-state capitalism were other likely scenarios that could break up the EU, Bundeswehr experts believe.
German analysis might have some sound reasoning behind these predictions. Eastern European countries are increasingly acting in unison against the EU’s open doors policy towards illegal migrants. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia have come together under the umbrella of the Visegrád group. Austria’s newly elected right-wing government, too, has shown interest in joining the Visegrád alliance.
Brussels is pushing for an Europe-wide migrant relocation plan aimed at settling migrants, mostly young men from Arab and Muslim countries, all across the member states. Last year, more than 90 percent of Hungarians voted “no” to any EU-backed migrant resettlement plan in a national referendum. Despite the top EU court, the European Court of Justice (ECJ), ordering eastern European countries to settle migrant on their soil, Hungary and Poland are resisting such a move. If German military strategists are to be believed, the coming showdown over migrant intake poses a serious threat to EU’s existence.