Donald Trump is in the lead and Ted Cruz is in second place, but the latest poll of prospective Iowa caucus-goers by the firm Public Policy Polling shows that plenty of voters could change their minds by February 1:
There are still a lot of votes on the table in Iowa- 31% of likely caucus goers say they could change their minds between now and Monday. Trump benefits from having the most firmly committed support though- 80% of his voters say they're firmly committed to him compared to 71% of Cruz's and 65% of Rubio's among the other leading contenders.
So where could those votes end up? PPP finds that Marco Rubio stands to do the best, followed by Ted Cruz.
There are reasons within these numbers to see the possibility of both Cruz and Rubio out performing their current standing on Monday night. Currently 30% of the likely electorate is supporting someone among the also rans- the 9 candidates in single digits. But 43% of those voters are open to the possibility of changing their minds- possibly casting a strategic vote. And among that group supporting the also rans 35% say they would pick Rubio, 25% say they would pick Cruz, and 17% say they would pick Trump if they had to choose between the leading contenders.
That creates a real possibility if enough of those people really do end up peeling off for Rubio to get a surprise 20 or 25% on Monday night that gives him the momentum to be successful further down the road.
Cruz is trying to frame the vote Monday as one between himself and Donald Trump. According to PPP Cruz would pick up 50% of those supporting also-rans if it were a choice between those two, while 21% would back Trump.